FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Consumers Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

250.7 – 231.26

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

326 – 182

Prediction correct · off by 62.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 464.1 ±9.8

5982Merrill's Circuits of Destruction

Season APEX 95.9Event APEX 49.15Rank 40Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1498The Polar Pilots

Season APEX 250.1Event APEX 111.55Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3602RoboMos

Season APEX 118.1Event APEX 90Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 412.5 ±9.8

226Hammerheads

Season APEX 153.6Event APEX 90.23Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

244RoboDawgs 3D

Season APEX 108.2Event APEX 79.15Rank 29Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

5046Jacked Up Jackets

Season APEX 150.7Event APEX 61.88Rank 19Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5982, 1498, 3602

/ 100 compat

Projected

250.7 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5982, 1498, 3602

Auto

42.5 17%

Teleop

154.8 60%

Endgame

59.6 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 226, 244, 5046

/ 100 compat

Projected

231.3 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 226, 244, 5046

Auto

30.0 12%

Teleop

149.3 62%

Endgame

62.3 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.04 · Blue 1.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score250.7pts

Blue projected score231.3pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 70%, blue 75%

Supercharged bonusred 20%, blue 26%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 19.4
Score range: 176–306
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 508 vs event baseline 304.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

464.1Season APEX412.5

42.5Auto30

154.8Teleop149.3

59.6Endgame62.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	25
teleop	187	104
endgame	114	48
foul	0	5
total	326	182

Result

Final score

326 – 182

Prediction correct · off by 62.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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