FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Consumers Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 13

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

174.83 – 121.68

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

413 – 254

Prediction correct · off by 185.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 536.6 ±9.8

2767Stryke Force

Season APEX 275.4Event APEX 69.88Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3767TC Titans

Season APEX 116.7Event APEX 29.42Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4398Gladiators

Season APEX 144.5Event APEX 75.53Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 419.8 ±9.8

9215T-Town Tech

Season APEX 129.3Event APEX 28.25Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7598SCA Constellations

Season APEX 159.5Event APEX 95.26Rank 28Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

247Da Bears

Season APEX 131Event APEX -1.83Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2767, 3767, 4398

/ 100 compat

Projected

174.8 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2767, 3767, 4398

Auto

26.0 14%

Teleop

115.4 63%

Endgame

42.1 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 39%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9215, 7598, 247

/ 100 compat

Projected

121.7 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9215, 7598, 247

Auto

37.0 29%

Teleop

62.0 48%

Endgame

30.5 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 39%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.42 · Blue 1.69

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score174.8pts

Blue projected score121.7pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 69%, blue 74%

Supercharged bonusred 39%, blue 25%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 53.2
Score range: 68–229
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 667 vs event baseline 301.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

536.6Season APEX419.8

26Auto37

115.4Teleop62

42.1Endgame30.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	110	16
teleop	231	157
endgame	57	76
foul	15	5
total	413	254

Result

Final score

413 – 254

Prediction correct · off by 185.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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