FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Consumers Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

224.59 – 209.37

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

251 – 236

Prediction correct · off by 26.5 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 648.5 ±8.7

54622Paw Robotics

Season APEX 195.9Event APEX 32.92Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6528Terror Bytes

Season APEX 247.3Event APEX 101.96Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10349Pontiac Firebirds

Season APEX 205.3Event APEX 89.71Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 430.1 ±9.8

9255Botmasterz

Season APEX 97.3Event APEX 49.51Rank 36Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8424Tractor Technicians Next Gen

Season APEX 118.3Event APEX 73.75Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2586Copper Bots

Season APEX 214.5Event APEX 86.11Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5462, 6528, 10349

/ 100 compat

Projected

224.6 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5462, 6528, 10349

Auto

32.8 15%

Teleop

141.3 63%

Endgame

50.4 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 35%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9255, 8424, 2586

/ 100 compat

Projected

209.4 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9255, 8424, 2586

Auto

48.7 24%

Teleop

106.4 51%

Endgame

52.1 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 35%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.1 · Blue 1.73

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score224.6pts

Blue projected score209.4pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 35%, blue 18%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 15.2
Score range: 154–280
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 487 vs event baseline 307.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

648.5Season APEX430.1

32.8Auto48.7

141.3Teleop106.4

50.4Endgame52.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	44	56
teleop	110	124
endgame	92	41
foul	5	15
total	251	236

Result

Final score

251 – 236

Prediction correct · off by 26.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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