FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Consumers Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

273.02 – 322.97

35%65%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

161 – 393

Prediction correct · off by 91 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 607.9 ±9.3

2611Jacktown Vectors

Season APEX 182.4Event APEX 118Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

302The Dragons

Season APEX 175.5Event APEX 73.06Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

469Las Guerrillas

Season APEX 250Event APEX 81.96Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 632.9 ±9.3

5535Bionic Bison

Season APEX 130.9Event APEX 96.68Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5193Pantheon

Season APEX 275.3Event APEX 108.29Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1023Bedford Express

Season APEX 226.7Event APEX 118Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2611, 302, 469

/ 100 compat

Projected

273 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2611, 302, 469

Auto

78.2 29%

Teleop

126.6 47%

Endgame

64.8 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 33%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5535, 5193, 1023

/ 100 compat

Projected

323 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5535, 5193, 1023

Auto

68.4 21%

Teleop

173.8 54%

Endgame

79.6 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 33%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.73 · Blue 2.42

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score273pts

Blue projected score323pts

Red win probability35%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 68%, blue 69%

Supercharged bonusred 33%, blue 40%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -50
Score range: 217–379
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 554 vs event baseline 310.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

607.9Season APEX632.9

78.2Auto68.4

126.6Teleop173.8

64.8Endgame79.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	97
teleop	96	207
endgame	36	84
foul	5	5
total	161	393

Result

Final score

161 – 393

Prediction correct · off by 91 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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