FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Consumers Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

210.4 – 145.9

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Tie

Final score

324 – 324

Prediction correct · off by 145.9 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 557.7 ±8.7

201The FEDS

Season APEX 248.5Event APEX 51.93Rank 33Record 2-9-1Status establishedConfidence 100

244RoboDawgs 3D

Season APEX 108.2Event APEX 66.22Rank 29Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

1076PiHi Samurai

Season APEX 201Event APEX 92.25Rank 27Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 474.2 ±9.3

9210Fighting Falcons

Season APEX 143.8Event APEX 24.54Rank 37Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 100

862Lightning Robotics

Season APEX 107.9Event APEX 55.14Rank 38Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 100

3572Wavelength

Season APEX 222.5Event APEX 66.22Rank 24Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 201, 244, 1076

/ 100 compat

Projected

210.4 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 201, 244, 1076

Auto

49.1 23%

Teleop

109.3 52%

Endgame

50.7 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9210, 862, 3572

/ 100 compat

Projected

145.9 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9210, 862, 3572

Auto

13.1 9%

Teleop

90.9 60%

Endgame

46.4 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.33 · Blue 1.39

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score210.4pts

Blue projected score145.9pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 26%, blue 17%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 64.5
Score range: 90–266
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 648 vs event baseline 308.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

557.7Season APEX474.2

49.1Auto13.1

109.3Teleop90.9

50.7Endgame46.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	84	26
teleop	183	172
endgame	57	126
foul	0	0
total	324	324

Result

Final score

324 – 324

Prediction correct · off by 145.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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