FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Consumers Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

411.54 – 338.48

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

411 – 268

Prediction correct · off by 35.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 675.5 ±9.3

1023Bedford Express

Season APEX 226.7Event APEX 102.67Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2611Jacktown Vectors

Season APEX 182.4Event APEX 132.84Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3414Hackbots

Season APEX 266.4Event APEX 176.03Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 491.9 ±9.8

9255Botmasterz

Season APEX 97.3Event APEX 54.1Rank 36Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5982Merrill's Circuits of Destruction

Season APEX 95.9Event APEX 60.96Rank 40Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6090Wayland Wildcats

A+

Season APEX 298.7Event APEX 223.42Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1023, 2611, 3414

/ 100 compat

Projected

411.5 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1023, 2611, 3414

Auto

97.4 24%

Teleop

231.3 56%

Endgame

82.2 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 43%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9255, 5982, 6090

/ 100 compat

Projected

338.5 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9255, 5982, 6090

Auto

73.6 22%

Teleop

166.7 50%

Endgame

93.7 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 43%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.54 · Blue 1.43

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score411.5pts

Blue projected score338.5pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 43%, blue 20%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 73.1
Score range: 277–473
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 679 vs event baseline 341.1.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

675.5Season APEX491.9

97.4Auto73.6

231.3Teleop166.7

82.2Endgame93.7

146Consistency172

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	121	83
teleop	190	131
endgame	95	54
foul	5	0
total	411	268

Result

Final score

411 – 268

Prediction correct · off by 35.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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