FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Consumers Energy Foundation Division

Final · Finals 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

491.99 – 398.75

76%24%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

539 – 466

Prediction correct · off by 57.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 788.6 ±8.7

2586Copper Bots

Season APEX 214.5Event APEX 69.82Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2767Stryke Force

Season APEX 275.4Event APEX 200.34Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6090Wayland Wildcats

A+

Season APEX 298.7Event APEX 221.83Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 624.3 ±8.7

862Lightning Robotics

Season APEX 107.9Event APEX 77.29Rank 38Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 100

3414Hackbots

Season APEX 266.4Event APEX 173.7Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

469Las Guerrillas

Season APEX 250Event APEX 147.76Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2586, 2767, 6090

/ 100 compat

Projected

492 pts

~2.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2586, 2767, 6090

Auto

97.7 20%

Teleop

260.5 54%

Endgame

126.5 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 39%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 862, 3414, 469

/ 100 compat

Projected

398.8 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 862, 3414, 469

Auto

87.9 22%

Teleop

212.7 54%

Endgame

91.3 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 39%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.58 · Blue 1.35

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score492pts

Blue projected score398.8pts

Red win probability76%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 39%, blue 28%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 93.2
Score range: 338–553
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 1005 vs event baseline 339.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

788.6Season APEX624.3

97.7Auto87.9

260.5Teleop212.7

126.5Endgame91.3

138Consistency136

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	141	106
teleop	278	218
endgame	120	142
foul	0	0
total	539	466

Result

Final score

539 – 466

Prediction correct · off by 57.1 pts

Match videos

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