FIRST in Michigan State Championship - DTE Energy Foundation Division

Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

406.55 – 442.34

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

434 – 654

Prediction correct · off by 119.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 541.8 ±9.8

1502Technical Difficulties

Season APEX 122.6Event APEX 110.95Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8517Bounty Hunters

Season APEX 170.6Event APEX 159.4Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3620Average Joes

Season APEX 248.6Event APEX 136.2Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 750.1 ±8.7

67The HOT Team

Season APEX 280.7Event APEX 160.55Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4362Gems

Season APEX 237.4Event APEX 151.8Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9572CC Shambytes

Season APEX 232Event APEX 129.99Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1502, 8517, 3620

/ 100 compat

Projected

406.6 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1502, 8517, 3620

Auto

75.1 19%

Teleop

214.9 53%

Endgame

113.8 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 43%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 67, 4362, 9572

/ 100 compat

Projected

442.3 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 67, 4362, 9572

Auto

80.0 18%

Teleop

263.0 60%

Endgame

96.9 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 43%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.9 · Blue 2.16

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score406.6pts

Blue projected score442.3pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 43%, blue 33%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -35.8
Score range: 342–507
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 1088 vs event baseline 359.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

541.8Season APEX750.1

75.1Auto80

214.9Teleop263

113.8Endgame96.9

96Consistency86

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	52	114
teleop	238	375
endgame	134	165
foul	10	0
total	434	654

Result

Final score

434 – 654

Prediction correct · off by 119.6 pts

Match videos

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