FIRST in Michigan State Championship - DTE Energy Foundation Division

Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

459.42 – 418.36

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

480 – 400

Prediction correct · off by 19.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 741 ±8.1

9771FPRO

Season APEX 146.8Event APEX 64.38Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5907CC Shambots

A+

Season APEX 326.9Event APEX 215.53Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6002ZooBOTix

Season APEX 267.3Event APEX 179.51Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 749.1 ±8.7

2075Enigma Robotics

Season APEX 234.4Event APEX 107.45Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7220Steel Falcons

Season APEX 253.6Event APEX 170.21Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1506Metal Muscle

Season APEX 261.1Event APEX 140.7Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9771, 5907, 6002

/ 100 compat

Projected

459.4 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9771, 5907, 6002

Auto

106.6 23%

Teleop

239.1 51%

Endgame

118.8 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 37%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2075, 7220, 1506

/ 100 compat

Projected

418.4 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2075, 7220, 1506

Auto

72.4 18%

Teleop

244.1 60%

Endgame

93.4 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 37%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.14 · Blue 1.78

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score459.4pts

Blue projected score418.4pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 37%, blue 39%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 41.1
Score range: 353–524
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 880 vs event baseline 358.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

741Season APEX749.1

106.6Auto72.4

239.1Teleop244.1

118.8Endgame93.4

123Consistency66

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	131	70
teleop	186	210
endgame	163	120
foul	0	0
total	480	400

Result

Final score

480 – 400

Prediction correct · off by 19.5 pts

Match videos

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