FIRST in Michigan State Championship - DTE Energy Foundation Division

Playoff · Playoff Match 7 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

740.35 – 401.89

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

841 – 437

Prediction correct · off by 67.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 926 ±8.8

3668TroBots

Season APEX 144.5Event APEX 90.34Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

27Team RUSH

Season APEX 396.1Event APEX 359.61Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7769The CREW

Season APEX 385.4Event APEX 290.4Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 541.8 ±9.8

1502Technical Difficulties

Season APEX 122.6Event APEX 108.99Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8517Bounty Hunters

Season APEX 170.6Event APEX 157.77Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3620Average Joes

Season APEX 248.6Event APEX 135.13Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3668, 27, 7769

/ 100 compat

Projected

740.4 pts

~3.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3668, 27, 7769

Auto

139.8 19%

Teleop

412.0 56%

Endgame

186.0 25%

Strengths

· 27 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 49%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1502, 8517, 3620

/ 100 compat

Projected

401.9 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1502, 8517, 3620

Auto

78.0 20%

Teleop

215.5 54%

Endgame

106.3 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 49%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 3.11 · Blue 1.16

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score740.4pts

Blue projected score401.9pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 67%

Supercharged bonusred 49%, blue 43%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 338.5
Score range: 338–804
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 1278 vs event baseline 355.7.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

926Season APEX541.8

139.8Auto78

412Teleop215.5

186Endgame106.3

67Consistency88

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	181	64
teleop	445	213
endgame	215	155
foul	0	5
total	841	437

Result

Final score

841 – 437

Prediction correct · off by 67.9 pts

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.