FIRST in Michigan State Championship - DTE Energy Foundation Division

Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

417.77 – 403.08

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

571 – 367

Prediction correct · off by 94.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 750.1 ±8.7

67The HOT Team

Season APEX 280.7Event APEX 153.06Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4362Gems

Season APEX 237.4Event APEX 143.07Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9572CC Shambytes

Season APEX 232Event APEX 121.64Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 626.7 ±9.3

2054Tech Vikes

Season APEX 244.3Event APEX 145.46Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5505V2 - Volts Squared

Season APEX 128.3Event APEX 107.41Rank 38Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1189Gearheads

Season APEX 254.1Event APEX 150.21Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 67, 4362, 9572

/ 100 compat

Projected

417.8 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 67, 4362, 9572

Auto

75.2 18%

Teleop

250.5 60%

Endgame

91.2 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 33%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2054, 5505, 1189

/ 100 compat

Projected

403.1 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2054, 5505, 1189

Auto

67.5 17%

Teleop

235.4 59%

Endgame

98.6 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 33%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.04 · Blue 1.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score417.8pts

Blue projected score403.1pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 33%, blue 39%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 14.7
Score range: 339–482
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 938 vs event baseline 354.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

750.1Season APEX626.7

75.2Auto67.5

250.5Teleop235.4

91.2Endgame98.6

91Consistency69

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	106	102
teleop	323	162
endgame	132	88
foul	10	15
total	571	367

Result

Final score

571 – 367

Prediction correct · off by 94.7 pts

Match videos

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