Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
378.96 – 382.2
49%51%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
169 – 317
Prediction correct · off by 137.6 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 681.5 ±8.7
Season APEX 237Event APEX 134.56Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 197.3Event APEX 114.21Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 247.2Event APEX 130.19Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 478.1 ±9.8
Season APEX 180.3Event APEX 196.01Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 81.2Event APEX 47.73Rank 39Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 216.6Event APEX 138.46Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 51, 10633, 7160
68
/ 100 compatProjected
379 pts
~2.1 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 51, 10633, 7160
Auto
58.7 16%
Teleop
216.5 59%
Endgame
94.2 26%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 69%
Supercharged: 43%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 5660, 6088, 6121
70
/ 100 compatProjected
382.2 pts
~2.0 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 5660, 6088, 6121
Auto
65.5 17%
Teleop
215.6 57%
Endgame
97.8 26%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 69%
Supercharged: 43%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.12 · Blue 1.99
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score379pts
Blue projected score382.2pts
Red win probability49%
Event bonus sample190alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 69%, blue 62%
Supercharged bonusred 43%, blue 33%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -3.2
- Score range
- 315–446
- Upset likelihood
- 49%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
681.5Season APEX478.1
58.7Auto65.5
216.5Teleop215.6
94.2Endgame97.8
99Consistency120
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 41 | 61 |
| teleop | 75 | 180 |
| endgame | 48 | 51 |
| foul | 5 | 25 |
| total | 169 | 317 |
Result
Final score
169 – 317
Prediction correct · off by 137.6 pts
Match videos
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