FIRST in Michigan State Championship - DTE Energy Foundation Division

Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

407.79 – 383.37

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

358 – 557

Prediction missed · off by 111.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 626.7 ±9.3

5505V2 - Volts Squared

Season APEX 128.3Event APEX 108.85Rank 38Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2054Tech Vikes

Season APEX 244.3Event APEX 147.68Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1189Gearheads

Season APEX 254.1Event APEX 151.26Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 749.1 ±8.7

2075Enigma Robotics

Season APEX 234.4Event APEX 95.65Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7220Steel Falcons

Season APEX 253.6Event APEX 159.83Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1506Metal Muscle

Season APEX 261.1Event APEX 127.89Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5505, 2054, 1189

/ 100 compat

Projected

407.8 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5505, 2054, 1189

Auto

59.7 15%

Teleop

248.8 61%

Endgame

98.7 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 39%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2075, 7220, 1506

/ 100 compat

Projected

383.4 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2075, 7220, 1506

Auto

64.9 17%

Teleop

222.7 60%

Endgame

85.1 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 39%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.18 · Blue 1.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score407.8pts

Blue projected score383.4pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 39%, blue 39%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 24.4
Score range: 319–472
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 915 vs event baseline 354.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

626.7Season APEX749.1

59.7Auto64.9

248.8Teleop222.7

98.7Endgame85.1

60Consistency71

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	96	107
teleop	165	323
endgame	92	127
foul	5	0
total	358	557

Result

Final score

358 – 557

Prediction missed · off by 111.7 pts

Match videos

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