FIRST in Michigan State Championship - DTE Energy Foundation Division

Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

445.43 – 407.88

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

506 – 449

Prediction correct · off by 50.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 741 ±8.1

9771FPRO

Season APEX 146.8Event APEX 57.52Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5907CC Shambots

A+

Season APEX 326.9Event APEX 213.6Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6002ZooBOTix

Season APEX 267.3Event APEX 174.31Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 750.1 ±8.7

67The HOT Team

Season APEX 280.7Event APEX 149.55Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4362Gems

Season APEX 237.4Event APEX 140.91Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9572CC Shambytes

Season APEX 232Event APEX 117.42Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9771, 5907, 6002

/ 100 compat

Projected

445.4 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9771, 5907, 6002

Auto

116.6 26%

Teleop

238.4 53%

Endgame

96.4 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 37%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 67, 4362, 9572

/ 100 compat

Projected

407.9 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 67, 4362, 9572

Auto

70.6 17%

Teleop

238.5 59%

Endgame

97.4 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 37%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.12 · Blue 1.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score445.4pts

Blue projected score407.9pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 37%, blue 33%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 37.6
Score range: 344–509
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 955 vs event baseline 352.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

741Season APEX750.1

116.6Auto70.6

238.4Teleop238.5

96.4Endgame97.4

127Consistency84

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	68	93
teleop	233	291
endgame	205	65
foul	0	0
total	506	449

Result

Final score

506 – 449

Prediction correct · off by 50.8 pts

Match videos

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