FIRST in Michigan State Championship - DTE Energy Foundation Division

Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

390.79 – 372.67

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

446 – 437

Prediction correct · off by 59.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 541.8 ±9.8

1502Technical Difficulties

Season APEX 122.6Event APEX 107.38Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8517Bounty Hunters

Season APEX 170.6Event APEX 153.02Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3620Average Joes

Season APEX 248.6Event APEX 130.39Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 478.1 ±9.8

5660Symmetrical Chaos

Season APEX 180.3Event APEX 192.29Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6088Stephenson Eagles

Season APEX 81.2Event APEX 44.82Rank 39Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6121RoboVikes

Season APEX 216.6Event APEX 135.56Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1502, 8517, 3620

/ 100 compat

Projected

390.8 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1502, 8517, 3620

Auto

73.2 19%

Teleop

210.5 54%

Endgame

105.1 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 43%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5660, 6088, 6121

/ 100 compat

Projected

372.7 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5660, 6088, 6121

Auto

62.5 17%

Teleop

209.7 57%

Endgame

96.3 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 43%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.23 · Blue 1.86

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score390.8pts

Blue projected score372.7pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 43%, blue 33%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 18.1
Score range: 310–454
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 883 vs event baseline 351.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

541.8Season APEX478.1

73.2Auto62.5

210.5Teleop209.7

105.1Endgame96.3

80Consistency118

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	103	79
teleop	228	247
endgame	110	111
foul	5	0
total	446	437

Result

Final score

446 – 437

Prediction correct · off by 59.8 pts

Match videos

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