FIRST in Michigan State Championship - DTE Energy Foundation Division

Playoff · Playoff Match 1 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

732.63 – 371.59

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

796 – 425

Prediction correct · off by 58.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 926 ±8.8

3668TroBots

Season APEX 144.5Event APEX 87.97Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

27Team RUSH

Season APEX 396.1Event APEX 356.77Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7769The CREW

Season APEX 385.4Event APEX 287.89Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 681.5 ±8.7

51Wings of Fire

Season APEX 237Event APEX 132.3Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10633BeeBotics

Season APEX 197.3Event APEX 111.71Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7160Ludington O-Bots

Season APEX 247.2Event APEX 127.58Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3668, 27, 7769

/ 100 compat

Projected

732.6 pts

~3.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3668, 27, 7769

Auto

137.7 19%

Teleop

409.1 56%

Endgame

182.4 25%

Strengths

· 27 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 49%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 51, 10633, 7160

/ 100 compat

Projected

371.6 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 51, 10633, 7160

Auto

63.4 17%

Teleop

215.7 59%

Endgame

85.8 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 49%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 3.11 · Blue 1.18

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score732.6pts

Blue projected score371.6pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 69%

Supercharged bonusred 49%, blue 43%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 361
Score range: 309–796
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 1221 vs event baseline 348.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

926Season APEX681.5

137.7Auto63.4

409.1Teleop215.7

182.4Endgame85.8

94Consistency89

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	167	50
teleop	427	221
endgame	202	134
foul	0	20
total	796	425

Result

Final score

796 – 425

Prediction correct · off by 58.4 pts

Match videos

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