FIRST in Michigan State Championship - DTE Energy Foundation Division

Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

458.33 – 485.72

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

611 – 557

Prediction missed · off by 112 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 741 ±8.1

9771FPRO

Season APEX 146.8Event APEX 65.21Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5907CC Shambots

A+

Season APEX 326.9Event APEX 214.65Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6002ZooBOTix

Season APEX 267.3Event APEX 178.47Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 750.1 ±8.7

67The HOT Team

Season APEX 280.7Event APEX 174.33Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4362Gems

Season APEX 237.4Event APEX 166.13Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9572CC Shambytes

Season APEX 232Event APEX 145.26Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9771, 5907, 6002

/ 100 compat

Projected

458.3 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9771, 5907, 6002

Auto

110.4 24%

Teleop

223.4 48%

Endgame

127.5 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 37%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 67, 4362, 9572

/ 100 compat

Projected

485.7 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 67, 4362, 9572

Auto

86.8 18%

Teleop

289.7 60%

Endgame

104.9 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 37%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.72 · Blue 2.11

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score458.3pts

Blue projected score485.7pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 37%, blue 33%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -27.4
Score range: 392–552
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 1168 vs event baseline 366.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

741Season APEX750.1

110.4Auto86.8

223.4Teleop289.7

127.5Endgame104.9

128Consistency69

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	116	146
teleop	303	287
endgame	177	104
foul	15	20
total	611	557

Result

Final score

611 – 557

Prediction missed · off by 112 pts

Match videos

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