FIRST in Michigan State Championship - DTE Energy Foundation Division

Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

427.56 – 472.17

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

461 – 583

Prediction correct · off by 72.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 749.1 ±8.7

2075Enigma Robotics

Season APEX 234.4Event APEX 110.45Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7220Steel Falcons

Season APEX 253.6Event APEX 173.13Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1506Metal Muscle

Season APEX 261.1Event APEX 143.98Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 750.1 ±8.7

67The HOT Team

Season APEX 280.7Event APEX 170.12Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4362Gems

Season APEX 237.4Event APEX 161.52Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9572CC Shambytes

Season APEX 232Event APEX 140.53Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2075, 7220, 1506

/ 100 compat

Projected

427.6 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2075, 7220, 1506

Auto

76.8 18%

Teleop

251.0 60%

Endgame

93.2 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 39%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 67, 4362, 9572

/ 100 compat

Projected

472.2 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 67, 4362, 9572

Auto

84.5 18%

Teleop

278.7 59%

Endgame

106.9 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 39%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.76 · Blue 2.22

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score427.6pts

Blue projected score472.2pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 39%, blue 33%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -44.6
Score range: 362–538
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 1044 vs event baseline 364.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

749.1Season APEX750.1

76.8Auto84.5

251Teleop278.7

93.2Endgame106.9

82Consistency71

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	95	104
teleop	288	369
endgame	78	90
foul	0	20
total	461	583

Result

Final score

461 – 583

Prediction correct · off by 72.1 pts

Match videos

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