FIRST in Michigan State Championship - DTE Energy Foundation Division

Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

753.94 – 461.48

97%3%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

593 – 444

Prediction correct · off by 89.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 926 ±8.8

3668TroBots

Season APEX 144.5Event APEX 94.99Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

27Team RUSH

Season APEX 396.1Event APEX 364.33Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7769The CREW

Season APEX 385.4Event APEX 294.62Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 741 ±8.1

9771FPRO

Season APEX 146.8Event APEX 66.03Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5907CC Shambots

A+

Season APEX 326.9Event APEX 215.33Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6002ZooBOTix

Season APEX 267.3Event APEX 180.12Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3668, 27, 7769

/ 100 compat

Projected

753.9 pts

~3.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3668, 27, 7769

Auto

146.0 19%

Teleop

415.9 55%

Endgame

189.8 25%

Strengths

· 27 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 49%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9771, 5907, 6002

/ 100 compat

Projected

461.5 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9771, 5907, 6002

Auto

110.2 24%

Teleop

229.6 49%

Endgame

125.9 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 49%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 3.09 · Blue 0.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score753.9pts

Blue projected score461.5pts

Red win probability97%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 49%, blue 37%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 292.5
Score range: 396–819
Upset likelihood: 3%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 1037 vs event baseline 362.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

926Season APEX741

146Auto110.2

415.9Teleop229.6

189.8Endgame125.9

56Consistency123

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	173	112
teleop	295	190
endgame	115	137
foul	10	5
total	593	444

Result

Final score

593 – 444

Prediction correct · off by 89.2 pts

Match videos

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