Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
413.67 – 366.45
64%36%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
495 – 374
Prediction correct · off by 44.4 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 749.1 ±8.7
Season APEX 234.4Event APEX 105.66Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 253.6Event APEX 168.79Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 261.1Event APEX 139.22Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 478.1 ±9.8
Season APEX 180.3Event APEX 192.35Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 81.2Event APEX 42.96Rank 39Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 216.6Event APEX 131.14Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 2075, 7220, 1506
70
/ 100 compatProjected
413.7 pts
~2.3 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 2075, 7220, 1506
Auto
71.6 18%
Teleop
237.8 58%
Endgame
97.2 24%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 62%
Supercharged: 39%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 5660, 6088, 6121
68
/ 100 compatProjected
366.5 pts
~1.7 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 5660, 6088, 6121
Auto
63.7 18%
Teleop
208.3 58%
Endgame
87.7 24%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 62%
Supercharged: 39%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.32 · Blue 1.69
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score413.7pts
Blue projected score366.5pts
Red win probability64%
Event bonus sample190alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 62%, blue 62%
Supercharged bonusred 39%, blue 33%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 47.2
- Score range
- 301–479
- Upset likelihood
- 36%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
749.1Season APEX478.1
71.6Auto63.7
237.8Teleop208.3
97.2Endgame87.7
77Consistency126
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 111 | 83 |
| teleop | 317 | 210 |
| endgame | 62 | 76 |
| foul | 5 | 5 |
| total | 495 | 374 |
Result
Final score
495 – 374
Prediction correct · off by 44.4 pts
Match videos
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