FIRST in Michigan State Championship - DTE Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

385.5 – 485.5

22%78%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

381 – 618

Prediction correct · off by 68.5 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 730.1 ±8.7

1506Metal Muscle

Season APEX 261.1Event APEX 219.14Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9572CC Shambytes

Season APEX 232Event APEX 56Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

51Wings of Fire

Season APEX 237Event APEX 110.36Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 887.6 ±8.1

27Team RUSH

Season APEX 396.1Event APEX 171.61Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7160Ludington O-Bots

Season APEX 247.2Event APEX 219.14Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2054Tech Vikes

Season APEX 244.3Event APEX 94.75Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1506, 9572, 51

/ 100 compat

Projected

385.5 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1506, 9572, 51

Auto

51.9 13%

Teleop

222.0 57%

Endgame

112.5 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 36%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 27, 7160, 2054

/ 100 compat

Projected

485.5 pts

~2.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 27, 7160, 2054

Auto

72.3 15%

Teleop

296.1 61%

Endgame

117.1 24%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 36%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.47 · Blue 2.74

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score385.5pts

Blue projected score485.5pts

Red win probability22%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 67%

Supercharged bonusred 36%, blue 50%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -100
Score range: 325–547
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 999 vs event baseline 340.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

730.1Season APEX887.6

51.9Auto72.3

222Teleop296.1

112.5Endgame117.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	60	136
teleop	236	388
endgame	85	94
foul	0	0
total	381	618

Result

Final score

381 – 618

Prediction correct · off by 68.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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