FIRST in Michigan State Championship - DTE Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 80

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

272.86 – 317.78

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

371 – 201

Prediction missed · off by 107.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 619.5 ±9.3

67The HOT Team

Season APEX 280.7Event APEX 142.84Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

217ThunderChickens

Season APEX 104.4Event APEX 37.76Rank 34Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2075Enigma Robotics

Season APEX 234.4Event APEX 92.26Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 463.3 ±9.8

5144LISD TECHnicians

Season APEX 156.3Event APEX 120.65Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

85B.O.B. (Built on Brains)

Season APEX 125.4Event APEX 111.08Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

245Adambots

Season APEX 181.6Event APEX 86.05Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 67, 217, 2075

/ 100 compat

Projected

272.9 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 67, 217, 2075

Auto

53.4 20%

Teleop

149.2 55%

Endgame

66.9 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 33%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5144, 85, 245

/ 100 compat

Projected

317.8 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5144, 85, 245

Auto

43.6 14%

Teleop

168.2 53%

Endgame

107.2 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 33%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.62 · Blue 2.2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score272.9pts

Blue projected score317.8pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 33%, blue 28%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -44.9
Score range: 210–381
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 572 vs event baseline 347.5.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

619.5Season APEX463.3

53.4Auto43.6

149.2Teleop168.2

66.9Endgame107.2

114Consistency87

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	99	38
teleop	167	79
endgame	105	84
foul	0	0
total	371	201

Result

Final score

371 – 201

Prediction missed · off by 107.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.