FIRST in Michigan State Championship - DTE Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 8

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

335.72 – 270.57

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

384 – 113

Prediction correct · off by 102.9 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 659 ±9.3

1189Gearheads

Season APEX 254.1Event APEX 109.43Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3620Average Joes

Season APEX 248.6Event APEX 100Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5144LISD TECHnicians

Season APEX 156.3Event APEX 126.29Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 333.3 ±9.8

4680AzTech Eagles

Season APEX 80.5Event APEX 154.57Rank 40Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9771FPRO

Season APEX 146.8Event APEX 38.29Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10666Green MachineZ

Season APEX 106Event APEX 77.71Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1189, 3620, 5144

/ 100 compat

Projected

335.7 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1189, 3620, 5144

Auto

23.7 7%

Teleop

200.0 60%

Endgame

112.0 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 41%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4680, 9771, 10666

/ 100 compat

Projected

270.6 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4680, 9771, 10666

Auto

56.0 21%

Teleop

166.6 62%

Endgame

48.0 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 41%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.46 · Blue 1.32

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score335.7pts

Blue projected score270.6pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 41%, blue 23%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 65.2
Score range: 207–400
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 497 vs event baseline 353.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

659Season APEX333.3

23.7Auto56

200Teleop166.6

112Endgame48

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	52
teleop	232	47
endgame	92	14
foul	20	0
total	384	113

Result

Final score

384 – 113

Prediction correct · off by 102.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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