FIRST in Michigan State Championship - DTE Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 79

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

464.26 – 512.51

35%65%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

553 – 554

Prediction correct · off by 65.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 758.7 ±9.3

7769The CREW

Season APEX 385.4Event APEX 282.28Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5676The H.E.R.O.E.S

Season APEX 119.7Event APEX 37.4Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7220Steel Falcons

Season APEX 253.6Event APEX 144.58Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 711.4 ±8.8

27Team RUSH

Season APEX 396.1Event APEX 357.3Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10978Complete Robotics

Season APEX 83.3Event APEX 36.96Rank 36Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9572CC Shambytes

Season APEX 232Event APEX 118.25Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7769, 5676, 7220

/ 100 compat

Projected

464.3 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7769, 5676, 7220

Auto

82.5 18%

Teleop

259.6 58%

Endgame

109.1 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 36%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 27, 10978, 9572

/ 100 compat

Projected

512.5 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 27, 10978, 9572

Auto

106.3 21%

Teleop

284.7 56%

Endgame

116.9 23%

Strengths

· 27 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 36%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.76 · Blue 2.26

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score464.3pts

Blue projected score512.5pts

Red win probability35%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 36%, blue 33%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -48.2
Score range: 402–575
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 1107 vs event baseline 344.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

758.7Season APEX711.4

82.5Auto106.3

259.6Teleop284.7

109.1Endgame116.9

103Consistency116

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	152	98
teleop	320	299
endgame	71	152
foul	10	5
total	553	554

Result

Final score

553 – 554

Prediction correct · off by 65.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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