FIRST in Michigan State Championship - DTE Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 77

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

293.08 – 298.95

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

436 – 300

Prediction missed · off by 72 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 499.2 ±9.8

8126Control Freaks

Season APEX 91.6Event APEX 20.82Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8517Bounty Hunters

Season APEX 170.6Event APEX 146.71Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

51Wings of Fire

Season APEX 237Event APEX 125.55Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 441.1 ±9.8

3668TroBots

Season APEX 144.5Event APEX 76.32Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5567Code Red Robotics

Season APEX 80Event APEX 78.45Rank 35Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6121RoboVikes

Season APEX 216.6Event APEX 144.18Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8126, 8517, 51

/ 100 compat

Projected

293.1 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8126, 8517, 51

Auto

61.9 21%

Teleop

157.4 54%

Endgame

69.7 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 40%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3668, 5567, 6121

/ 100 compat

Projected

299 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3668, 5567, 6121

Auto

12.7 4%

Teleop

182.7 62%

Endgame

97.0 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 40%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.04 · Blue 1.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score293.1pts

Blue projected score299pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 40%, blue 28%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -5.9
Score range: 231–361
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 736 vs event baseline 342.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

499.2Season APEX441.1

61.9Auto12.7

157.4Teleop182.7

69.7Endgame97

105Consistency95

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	65	47
teleop	298	128
endgame	73	125
foul	0	0
total	436	300

Result

Final score

436 – 300

Prediction missed · off by 72 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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