FIRST in Michigan State Championship - DTE Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 75

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

202.01 – 294.89

24%76%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

51 – 365

Prediction correct · off by 110.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 284.3 ±10.4

4680AzTech Eagles

Season APEX 80.5Event APEX 16.41Rank 40Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1502Technical Difficulties

Season APEX 122.6Event APEX 122.73Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6088Stephenson Eagles

Season APEX 81.2Event APEX 62.87Rank 39Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 546.4 ±9.3

4381Twisted Devils

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 60.44Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10633BeeBotics

Season APEX 197.3Event APEX 108.59Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3620Average Joes

Season APEX 248.6Event APEX 125.86Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4680, 1502, 6088

/ 100 compat

Projected

202 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4680, 1502, 6088

Auto

69.8 36%

Teleop

79.5 41%

Endgame

44.8 23%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 29%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4381, 10633, 3620

/ 100 compat

Projected

294.9 pts

~2.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4381, 10633, 3620

Auto

65.8 22%

Teleop

172.2 59%

Endgame

55.1 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 29%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.29 · Blue 2.56

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score202pts

Blue projected score294.9pts

Red win probability24%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 29%, blue 40%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -92.9
Score range: 140–357
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 416 vs event baseline 344.6.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

284.3Season APEX546.4

69.8Auto65.8

79.5Teleop172.2

44.8Endgame55.1

113Consistency84

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	46
teleop	11	232
endgame	13	87
foul	0	0
total	51	365

Result

Final score

51 – 365

Prediction correct · off by 110.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.