FIRST in Michigan State Championship - DTE Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 74

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

474.92 – 117.95

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

89 – 201

Prediction missed · off by 234.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 684 ±9.3

5676The H.E.R.O.E.S

Season APEX 119.7Event APEX 73.8Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4362Gems

Season APEX 237.4Event APEX 165.19Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5907CC Shambots

A+

Season APEX 326.9Event APEX 235.93Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 356.4 ±9.8

217ThunderChickens

Season APEX 104.4Event APEX 34.45Rank 34Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8352CODE Gold

Season APEX 105.2Event APEX 28.19Rank 26Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9771FPRO

Season APEX 146.8Event APEX 55.31Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5676, 4362, 5907

/ 100 compat

Projected

474.9 pts

~3.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5676, 4362, 5907

Auto

87.5 19%

Teleop

270.1 57%

Endgame

114.7 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 35%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 217, 8352, 9771

/ 100 compat

Projected

118 pts

~0.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 217, 8352, 9771

Auto

50.6 43%

Teleop

40.4 35%

Endgame

25.5 22%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 35%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.95 · Blue 0.74

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score474.9pts

Blue projected score118pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 35%, blue 25%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 357
Score range: 55–538
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 290 vs event baseline 347.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

684Season APEX356.4

87.5Auto50.6

270.1Teleop40.4

114.7Endgame25.5

155Consistency121

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	65	44
teleop	11	111
endgame	13	46
foul	0	0
total	89	201

Result

Final score

89 – 201

Prediction missed · off by 234.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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