FIRST in Michigan State Championship - DTE Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 72

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

400.53 – 380

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

467 – 234

Prediction correct · off by 106.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 717.9 ±8.7

7160Ludington O-Bots

Season APEX 247.2Event APEX 119.81Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6121RoboVikes

Season APEX 216.6Event APEX 132.01Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1189Gearheads

Season APEX 254.1Event APEX 148.71Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 517 ±9.8

5144LISD TECHnicians

Season APEX 156.3Event APEX 137.17Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

67The HOT Team

Season APEX 280.7Event APEX 155.12Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5567Code Red Robotics

Season APEX 80Event APEX 87.71Rank 35Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7160, 6121, 1189

/ 100 compat

Projected

400.5 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7160, 6121, 1189

Auto

45.1 11%

Teleop

245.9 62%

Endgame

107.6 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 46%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5144, 67, 5567

/ 100 compat

Projected

380 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5144, 67, 5567

Auto

45.6 12%

Teleop

217.9 59%

Endgame

102.8 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 46%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.28 · Blue 1.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score400.5pts

Blue projected score380pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 68%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 46%, blue 28%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 20.5
Score range: 318–463
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 701 vs event baseline 345.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

717.9Season APEX517

45.1Auto45.6

245.9Teleop217.9

107.6Endgame102.8

46Consistency77

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	54	20
teleop	294	105
endgame	109	109
foul	10	0
total	467	234

Result

Final score

467 – 234

Prediction correct · off by 106.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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