FIRST in Michigan State Championship - DTE Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 71

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

258.09 – 252.96

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

70 – 340

Prediction missed · off by 137.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 559 ±9.8

3620Average Joes

Season APEX 248.6Event APEX 139.5Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11493Pixel Knights

Season APEX 227.1Event APEX 69.67Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10978Complete Robotics

Season APEX 83.3Event APEX 48.92Rank 36Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 540 ±9.3

10633BeeBotics

Season APEX 197.3Event APEX 97.95Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3357COMETS

Season APEX 110.7Event APEX 47.77Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9572CC Shambytes

Season APEX 232Event APEX 107.24Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3620, 11493, 10978

/ 100 compat

Projected

258.1 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3620, 11493, 10978

Auto

46.7 19%

Teleop

154.8 62%

Endgame

47.4 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 29%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10633, 3357, 9572

/ 100 compat

Projected

253 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10633, 3357, 9572

Auto

51.9 21%

Teleop

141.2 56%

Endgame

58.1 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 29%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.94 · Blue 1.92

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score258.1pts

Blue projected score253pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 29%, blue 31%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 5.1
Score range: 191–320
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 410 vs event baseline 347.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

559Season APEX540

46.7Auto51.9

154.8Teleop141.2

47.4Endgame58.1

78Consistency124

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	22
teleop	20	217
endgame	13	101
foul	0	0
total	70	340

Result

Final score

70 – 340

Prediction missed · off by 137.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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