FIRST in Michigan State Championship - DTE Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 70

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

213.05 – 333.44

18%82%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

266 – 548

Prediction correct · off by 133.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 334.2 ±10.4

5505V2 - Volts Squared

Season APEX 128.3Event APEX 101.99Rank 38Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

85B.O.B. (Built on Brains)

Season APEX 125.4Event APEX 105.37Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4680AzTech Eagles

Season APEX 80.5Event APEX 5.69Rank 40Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 569.7 ±9.8

4362Gems

Season APEX 237.4Event APEX 139.21Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1025Impi Warriors

Season APEX 161.7Event APEX 72.59Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8517Bounty Hunters

Season APEX 170.6Event APEX 121.64Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5505, 85, 4680

/ 100 compat

Projected

213.1 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5505, 85, 4680

Auto

51.4 24%

Teleop

100.2 47%

Endgame

61.2 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4362, 1025, 8517

/ 100 compat

Projected

333.4 pts

~2.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4362, 1025, 8517

Auto

60.3 18%

Teleop

203.9 61%

Endgame

72.5 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.18 · Blue 2.67

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score213.1pts

Blue projected score333.4pts

Red win probability18%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 22%, blue 36%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -120.4
Score range: 151–395
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 814 vs event baseline 346.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

334.2Season APEX569.7

51.4Auto60.3

100.2Teleop203.9

61.2Endgame72.5

104Consistency64

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	45	91
teleop	134	310
endgame	82	147
foul	5	0
total	266	548

Result

Final score

266 – 548

Prediction correct · off by 133.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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