FIRST in Michigan State Championship - DTE Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 7

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

244.4 – 181.26

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

260 – 298

Prediction missed · off by 66.2 points

Limited current-season data (6 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 447.2 ±10.4

5660Symmetrical Chaos

Season APEX 180.3Event APEX -Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1025Impi Warriors

Season APEX 161.7Event APEX -Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8352CODE Gold

Season APEX 105.2Event APEX 122.57Rank 26Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 447 ±9.8

6121RoboVikes

Season APEX 216.6Event APEX -Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3357COMETS

Season APEX 110.7Event APEX 59.43Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5676The H.E.R.O.E.S

Season APEX 119.7Event APEX -Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5660, 1025, 8352

/ 100 compat

Projected

244.4 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5660, 1025, 8352

Auto

58.8 24%

Teleop

126.3 52%

Endgame

59.2 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 37%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6121, 3357, 5676

/ 100 compat

Projected

181.3 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6121, 3357, 5676

Auto

46.3 26%

Teleop

84.6 47%

Endgame

48.9 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 37%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.41 · Blue 1.59

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score244.4pts

Blue projected score181.3pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 37%, blue 30%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 63.1
Score range: 115–310
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 558 vs event baseline 365.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

447.2Season APEX447

22.3Auto9.7

65.4Teleop23.7

34.9Endgame24.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	39
teleop	191	195
endgame	26	59
foul	10	5
total	260	298

Result

Final score

260 – 298

Prediction missed · off by 66.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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