FIRST in Michigan State Championship - DTE Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 69

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

529.63 – 289.06

95%5%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

580 – 405

Prediction correct · off by 83.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 763.2 ±8.8

10666Green MachineZ

Season APEX 106Event APEX 50.85Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

27Team RUSH

Season APEX 396.1Event APEX 355.99Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1506Metal Muscle

Season APEX 261.1Event APEX 122.79Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 499.7 ±9.8

5907CC Shambots

A+

Season APEX 326.9Event APEX 229.42Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8126Control Freaks

Season APEX 91.6Event APEX 12.15Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6088Stephenson Eagles

Season APEX 81.2Event APEX 47.49Rank 39Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10666, 27, 1506

/ 100 compat

Projected

529.6 pts

~2.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10666, 27, 1506

Auto

138.2 27%

Teleop

286.5 55%

Endgame

93.9 18%

Strengths

· 27 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 37%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5907, 8126, 6088

/ 100 compat

Projected

289.1 pts

~1.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5907, 8126, 6088

Auto

58.9 20%

Teleop

170.8 59%

Endgame

58.4 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 37%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.91 · Blue 0.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score529.6pts

Blue projected score289.1pts

Red win probability95%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 37%, blue 33%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 240.6
Score range: 227–592
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 985 vs event baseline 343.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

763.2Season APEX499.7

138.2Auto58.9

286.5Teleop170.8

93.9Endgame58.4

91Consistency155

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	109
teleop	338	189
endgame	205	102
foul	5	5
total	580	405

Result

Final score

580 – 405

Prediction correct · off by 83.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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