FIRST in Michigan State Championship - DTE Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 68

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

305.6 – 293.67

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

392 – 363

Prediction correct · off by 77.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 495.1 ±9.4

1502Technical Difficulties

Season APEX 122.6Event APEX 116.59Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6002ZooBOTix

Season APEX 267.3Event APEX 156.28Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8352CODE Gold

Season APEX 105.2Event APEX 32.73Rank 26Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 534.7 ±9.8

3875Red Storm Robotics

Season APEX 155.8Event APEX 136.64Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3668TroBots

Season APEX 144.5Event APEX 68.23Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2075Enigma Robotics

Season APEX 234.4Event APEX 88.8Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1502, 6002, 8352

/ 100 compat

Projected

305.6 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1502, 6002, 8352

Auto

95.1 32%

Teleop

133.5 45%

Endgame

69.6 23%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 42%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3875, 3668, 2075

/ 100 compat

Projected

293.7 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3875, 3668, 2075

Auto

14.4 5%

Teleop

170.1 58%

Endgame

106.7 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 42%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.09 · Blue 1.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score305.6pts

Blue projected score293.7pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 42%, blue 39%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 11.9
Score range: 232–368
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 755 vs event baseline 343.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

495.1Season APEX534.7

95.1Auto14.4

133.5Teleop170.1

69.6Endgame106.7

124Consistency72

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	69	26
teleop	211	209
endgame	112	128
foul	0	0
total	392	363

Result

Final score

392 – 363

Prediction correct · off by 77.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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