FIRST in Michigan State Championship - DTE Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 67

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

184.28 – 277.11

24%76%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

225 – 469

Prediction correct · off by 116.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 337.5 ±9.8

3357COMETS

Season APEX 110.7Event APEX 42.43Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9771FPRO

Season APEX 146.8Event APEX 51.13Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5567Code Red Robotics

Season APEX 80Event APEX 90.72Rank 35Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 601.3 ±9.3

7220Steel Falcons

Season APEX 253.6Event APEX 128.71Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7160Ludington O-Bots

Season APEX 247.2Event APEX 106.36Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4381Twisted Devils

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 42.04Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3357, 9771, 5567

/ 100 compat

Projected

184.3 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3357, 9771, 5567

Auto

65.5 37%

Teleop

76.3 43%

Endgame

36.8 21%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7220, 7160, 4381

/ 100 compat

Projected

277.1 pts

~2.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7220, 7160, 4381

Auto

49.5 18%

Teleop

157.7 58%

Endgame

67.0 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.21 · Blue 2.56

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score184.3pts

Blue projected score277.1pts

Red win probability24%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 21%, blue 40%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -92.8
Score range: 122–339
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 694 vs event baseline 343.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

337.5Season APEX601.3

65.5Auto49.5

76.3Teleop157.7

36.8Endgame67

133Consistency47

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	95
teleop	133	259
endgame	72	115
foul	0	0
total	225	469

Result

Final score

225 – 469

Prediction correct · off by 116.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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