FIRST in Michigan State Championship - DTE Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 66

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

229.25 – 437.6

7%93%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

213 – 501

Prediction correct · off by 39.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 352.4 ±10.4

217ThunderChickens

Season APEX 104.4Event APEX 39.94Rank 34Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5676The H.E.R.O.E.S

Season APEX 119.7Event APEX 80.25Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5505V2 - Volts Squared

Season APEX 128.3Event APEX 109.06Rank 38Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 671.4 ±9.3

1189Gearheads

Season APEX 254.1Event APEX 139.34Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

51Wings of Fire

Season APEX 237Event APEX 118.73Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5660Symmetrical Chaos

Season APEX 180.3Event APEX 179.53Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 217, 5676, 5505

/ 100 compat

Projected

229.3 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 217, 5676, 5505

Auto

30.7 14%

Teleop

122.9 55%

Endgame

70.0 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1189, 51, 5660

/ 100 compat

Projected

437.6 pts

~3.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1189, 51, 5660

Auto

84.5 20%

Teleop

243.7 57%

Endgame

102.9 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.95 · Blue 3.07

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score229.3pts

Blue projected score437.6pts

Red win probability7%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 71%

Supercharged bonusred 23%, blue 48%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -208.3
Score range: 167–500
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 714 vs event baseline 343.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

352.4Season APEX671.4

30.7Auto84.5

122.9Teleop243.7

70Endgame102.9

137Consistency127

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	44	76
teleop	93	276
endgame	66	149
foul	10	0
total	213	501

Result

Final score

213 – 501

Prediction correct · off by 39.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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