FIRST in Michigan State Championship - DTE Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 65

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

314.73 – 203.51

80%20%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

344 – 127

Prediction correct · off by 52.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 615.4 ±9.8

9572CC Shambytes

Season APEX 232Event APEX 104.12Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5144LISD TECHnicians

Season APEX 156.3Event APEX 136.96Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11493Pixel Knights

Season APEX 227.1Event APEX 73.65Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 416.4 ±9.8

8126Control Freaks

Season APEX 91.6Event APEX 23.48Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2054Tech Vikes

Season APEX 244.3Event APEX 160.93Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4680AzTech Eagles

Season APEX 80.5Event APEX 19.1Rank 40Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9572, 5144, 11493

/ 100 compat

Projected

314.7 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9572, 5144, 11493

Auto

31.8 10%

Teleop

181.1 60%

Endgame

90.1 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 29%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8126, 2054, 4680

/ 100 compat

Projected

203.5 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8126, 2054, 4680

Auto

40.7 20%

Teleop

128.2 62%

Endgame

39.2 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 29%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.52 · Blue 1.31

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score314.7pts

Blue projected score203.5pts

Red win probability80%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 29%, blue 36%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 111.2
Score range: 142–377
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 471 vs event baseline 344.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

615.4Season APEX416.4

31.8Auto40.7

181.1Teleop128.2

90.1Endgame39.2

34Consistency59

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	28
teleop	213	47
endgame	102	47
foul	0	5
total	344	127

Result

Final score

344 – 127

Prediction correct · off by 52.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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