FIRST in Michigan State Championship - DTE Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 64

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

864.1 – 214.95

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

572 – 337

Prediction correct · off by 207.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 998.1 ±8.1

7769The CREW

Season APEX 385.4Event APEX 307.28Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6121RoboVikes

Season APEX 216.6Event APEX 165.08Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

27Team RUSH

Season APEX 396.1Event APEX 391.74Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 474.3 ±9.8

3668TroBots

Season APEX 144.5Event APEX 49.06Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6088Stephenson Eagles

Season APEX 81.2Event APEX 38.11Rank 39Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3620Average Joes

Season APEX 248.6Event APEX 127.78Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7769, 6121, 27

/ 100 compat

Projected

864.1 pts

~3.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7769, 6121, 27

Auto

153.2 18%

Teleop

514.6 60%

Endgame

190.0 22%

Strengths

· 27 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 55%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3668, 6088, 3620

/ 100 compat

Projected

215 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3668, 6088, 3620

Auto

26.6 12%

Teleop

129.7 61%

Endgame

56.8 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 55%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 3.23 · Blue 0.9

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score864.1pts

Blue projected score215pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 69%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 55%, blue 28%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 649.2
Score range: 153–926
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 909 vs event baseline 343.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

998.1Season APEX474.3

153.2Auto26.6

514.6Teleop129.7

190Endgame56.8

93Consistency94

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	134	49
teleop	270	180
endgame	158	103
foul	10	5
total	572	337

Result

Final score

572 – 337

Prediction correct · off by 207.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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