FIRST in Michigan State Championship - DTE Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 63

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

163.98 – 335.16

11%89%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

212 – 348

Prediction correct · off by 30.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 388.1 ±9.8

245Adambots

Season APEX 181.6Event APEX 87.2Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4381Twisted Devils

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 31.67Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10666Green MachineZ

Season APEX 106Event APEX 45.11Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 506.4 ±9.4

3875Red Storm Robotics

Season APEX 155.8Event APEX 133.68Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6002ZooBOTix

Season APEX 267.3Event APEX 156.22Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10978Complete Robotics

Season APEX 83.3Event APEX 45.26Rank 36Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 245, 4381, 10666

/ 100 compat

Projected

164 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 245, 4381, 10666

Auto

49.6 30%

Teleop

91.5 55%

Endgame

24.8 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 33%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3875, 6002, 10978

/ 100 compat

Projected

335.2 pts

~2.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3875, 6002, 10978

Auto

60.3 18%

Teleop

182.2 55%

Endgame

88.7 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 33%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.13 · Blue 2.79

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score164pts

Blue projected score335.2pts

Red win probability11%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 33%, blue 35%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -171.2
Score range: 102–397
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 560 vs event baseline 344.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

388.1Season APEX506.4

49.6Auto60.3

91.5Teleop182.2

24.8Endgame88.7

121Consistency113

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	88
teleop	104	163
endgame	67	92
foul	0	5
total	212	348

Result

Final score

212 – 348

Prediction correct · off by 30.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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