FIRST in Michigan State Championship - DTE Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 62

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

374.33 – 403.35

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

306 – 385

Prediction correct · off by 43.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 583.8 ±9.3

10633BeeBotics

Season APEX 197.3Event APEX 114.51Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1506Metal Muscle

Season APEX 261.1Event APEX 136.63Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

85B.O.B. (Built on Brains)

Season APEX 125.4Event APEX 123.19Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 602.7 ±9.8

8352CODE Gold

Season APEX 105.2Event APEX 35.4Rank 26Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5907CC Shambots

A+

Season APEX 326.9Event APEX 233.8Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8517Bounty Hunters

Season APEX 170.6Event APEX 134.15Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10633, 1506, 85

/ 100 compat

Projected

374.3 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10633, 1506, 85

Auto

72.3 20%

Teleop

202.7 56%

Endgame

88.6 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 29%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8352, 5907, 8517

/ 100 compat

Projected

403.4 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8352, 5907, 8517

Auto

77.2 19%

Teleop

236.3 59%

Endgame

90.3 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 29%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.77 · Blue 2.23

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score374.3pts

Blue projected score403.4pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 29%, blue 42%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -29
Score range: 312–465
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 691 vs event baseline 344.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

583.8Season APEX602.7

72.3Auto77.2

202.7Teleop236.3

88.6Endgame90.3

92Consistency119

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	65	98
teleop	165	161
endgame	76	126
foul	0	0
total	306	385

Result

Final score

306 – 385

Prediction correct · off by 43.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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