FIRST in Michigan State Championship - DTE Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 61

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

301.47 – 388.72

25%75%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

224 – 262

Prediction correct · off by 102.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 618.6 ±8.7

2075Enigma Robotics

Season APEX 234.4Event APEX 93.09Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9771FPRO

Season APEX 146.8Event APEX 65.34Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4362Gems

Season APEX 237.4Event APEX 143.04Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 565 ±9.8

67The HOT Team

Season APEX 280.7Event APEX 175.69Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1025Impi Warriors

Season APEX 161.7Event APEX 81.98Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1502Technical Difficulties

Season APEX 122.6Event APEX 131.05Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2075, 9771, 4362

/ 100 compat

Projected

301.5 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2075, 9771, 4362

Auto

74.8 24%

Teleop

173.7 57%

Endgame

58.9 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 31%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 67, 1025, 1502

/ 100 compat

Projected

388.7 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 67, 1025, 1502

Auto

64.0 17%

Teleop

219.4 57%

Endgame

99.1 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 31%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.34 · Blue 2.52

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score301.5pts

Blue projected score388.7pts

Red win probability25%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 31%, blue 41%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -87.2
Score range: 239–451
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 486 vs event baseline 345.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

618.6Season APEX565

74.8Auto64

173.7Teleop219.4

58.9Endgame99.1

107Consistency66

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	63	76
teleop	92	115
endgame	69	46
foul	0	25
total	224	262

Result

Final score

224 – 262

Prediction correct · off by 102.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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