FIRST in Michigan State Championship - DTE Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 60

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

629.81 – 392.82

95%5%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

663 – 369

Prediction correct · off by 28.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 778.5 ±8.8

5505V2 - Volts Squared

Season APEX 128.3Event APEX 109.58Rank 38Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1189Gearheads

Season APEX 254.1Event APEX 131.58Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

27Team RUSH

Season APEX 396.1Event APEX 388.65Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 702.2 ±8.7

7220Steel Falcons

Season APEX 253.6Event APEX 127.32Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9572CC Shambytes

Season APEX 232Event APEX 102.28Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6121RoboVikes

Season APEX 216.6Event APEX 163.22Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5505, 1189, 27

/ 100 compat

Projected

629.8 pts

~3.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5505, 1189, 27

Auto

120.6 19%

Teleop

363.6 58%

Endgame

142.8 23%

Strengths

· 27 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 44%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7220, 9572, 6121

/ 100 compat

Projected

392.8 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7220, 9572, 6121

Auto

45.5 12%

Teleop

249.8 64%

Endgame

97.2 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 44%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.99 · Blue 1.14

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score629.8pts

Blue projected score392.8pts

Red win probability95%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 67%

Supercharged bonusred 44%, blue 35%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 237
Score range: 331–692
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 1032 vs event baseline 342.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

778.5Season APEX702.2

120.6Auto45.5

363.6Teleop249.8

142.8Endgame97.2

134Consistency69

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	151	42
teleop	382	193
endgame	125	114
foul	5	20
total	663	369

Result

Final score

663 – 369

Prediction correct · off by 28.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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