FIRST in Michigan State Championship - DTE Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

506.26 – 279.43

94%6%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

449 – 215

Prediction correct · off by 60.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 703.1 ±9.3

1502Technical Difficulties

Season APEX 122.6Event APEX 110.56Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7220Steel Falcons

Season APEX 253.6Event APEX 174.33Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5907CC Shambots

A+

Season APEX 326.9Event APEX 221.37Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 575.6 ±9.4

6002ZooBOTix

Season APEX 267.3Event APEX 185.1Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11493Pixel Knights

Season APEX 227.1Event APEX 51.98Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6088Stephenson Eagles

Season APEX 81.2Event APEX 42.35Rank 39Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1502, 7220, 5907

/ 100 compat

Projected

506.3 pts

~3.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1502, 7220, 5907

Auto

109.0 22%

Teleop

265.8 53%

Endgame

127.2 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 47%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6002, 11493, 6088

/ 100 compat

Projected

279.4 pts

~1.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6002, 11493, 6088

Auto

74.8 27%

Teleop

145.6 53%

Endgame

53.1 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 47%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 3.01 · Blue 0.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score506.3pts

Blue projected score279.4pts

Red win probability94%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 47%, blue 28%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 226.8
Score range: 212–573
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 664 vs event baseline 372.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

703.1Season APEX575.6

109Auto74.8

265.8Teleop145.6

127.2Endgame53.1

110Consistency106

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	114	58
teleop	245	120
endgame	90	37
foul	0	0
total	449	215

Result

Final score

449 – 215

Prediction correct · off by 60.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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