FIRST in Michigan State Championship - DTE Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 59

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

321.58 – 162.38

88%12%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

472 – 324

Prediction correct · off by 156 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 641.4 ±9.3

51Wings of Fire

Season APEX 237Event APEX 96.81Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3620Average Joes

Season APEX 248.6Event APEX 106.28Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3875Red Storm Robotics

Season APEX 155.8Event APEX 118.49Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 372.4 ±10.4

5660Symmetrical Chaos

Season APEX 180.3Event APEX 155.62Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4381Twisted Devils

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 7.39Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8126Control Freaks

Season APEX 91.6Event APEX -0.63Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 51, 3620, 3875

/ 100 compat

Projected

321.6 pts

~3.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 51, 3620, 3875

Auto

56.1 18%

Teleop

168.9 55%

Endgame

84.4 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 74%

Supercharged: 44%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5660, 4381, 8126

/ 100 compat

Projected

162.4 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5660, 4381, 8126

Auto

43.2 26%

Teleop

88.9 55%

Endgame

31.0 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 74%

Supercharged: 44%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.96 · Blue 1.25

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score321.6pts

Blue projected score162.4pts

Red win probability88%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 74%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 44%, blue 40%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 159.2
Score range: 100–384
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 796 vs event baseline 341.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

641.4Season APEX372.4

56.1Auto43.2

168.9Teleop88.9

84.4Endgame31

100Consistency133

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	58	72
teleop	281	167
endgame	128	80
foul	5	5
total	472	324

Result

Final score

472 – 324

Prediction correct · off by 156 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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