FIRST in Michigan State Championship - DTE Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 58

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

538.61 – 164.22

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

651 – 160

Prediction correct · off by 58.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 712.3 ±9.8

8517Bounty Hunters

Season APEX 170.6Event APEX 122.86Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5144LISD TECHnicians

Season APEX 156.3Event APEX 121.47Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7769The CREW

Season APEX 385.4Event APEX 294.28Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 397.5 ±9.8

8352CODE Gold

Season APEX 105.2Event APEX 43.3Rank 26Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3357COMETS

Season APEX 110.7Event APEX 36.73Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

245Adambots

Season APEX 181.6Event APEX 84.19Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8517, 5144, 7769

/ 100 compat

Projected

538.6 pts

~3.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8517, 5144, 7769

Auto

67.7 13%

Teleop

332.1 62%

Endgame

134.6 25%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 43%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8352, 3357, 245

/ 100 compat

Projected

164.2 pts

~1.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8352, 3357, 245

Auto

47.0 29%

Teleop

70.1 43%

Endgame

45.1 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 43%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 3.07 · Blue 0.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score538.6pts

Blue projected score164.2pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 43%, blue 34%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 374.4
Score range: 103–600
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 811 vs event baseline 340.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

712.3Season APEX397.5

67.7Auto47

332.1Teleop70.1

134.6Endgame45.1

77Consistency129

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	105	31
teleop	328	78
endgame	213	46
foul	5	5
total	651	160

Result

Final score

651 – 160

Prediction correct · off by 58.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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