FIRST in Michigan State Championship - DTE Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 57

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

258.57 – 283.33

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

307 – 374

Prediction correct · off by 69.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 386.8 ±10.4

5676The H.E.R.O.E.S

Season APEX 119.7Event APEX 88.7Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3668TroBots

Season APEX 144.5Event APEX 37.46Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1502Technical Difficulties

Season APEX 122.6Event APEX 132.41Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 568.2 ±9.8

11493Pixel Knights

Season APEX 227.1Event APEX 63.67Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1506Metal Muscle

Season APEX 261.1Event APEX 135.52Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5567Code Red Robotics

Season APEX 80Event APEX 84.14Rank 35Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5676, 3668, 1502

/ 100 compat

Projected

258.6 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5676, 3668, 1502

Auto

31.5 13%

Teleop

111.7 46%

Endgame

102.1 42%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 32%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11493, 1506, 5567

/ 100 compat

Projected

283.3 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 11493, 1506, 5567

Auto

53.9 19%

Teleop

152.4 54%

Endgame

74.5 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 32%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.79 · Blue 2.03

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score258.6pts

Blue projected score283.3pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 32%, blue 25%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -24.8
Score range: 198–344
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 681 vs event baseline 340.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

386.8Season APEX568.2

31.5Auto53.9

111.7Teleop152.4

102.1Endgame74.5

100Consistency49

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	57
teleop	180	203
endgame	89	49
foul	0	65
total	307	374

Result

Final score

307 – 374

Prediction correct · off by 69.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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