FIRST in Michigan State Championship - DTE Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 56

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

192.95 – 318.14

17%83%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

140 – 407

Prediction correct · off by 70.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 421.6 ±9.8

2075Enigma Robotics

Season APEX 234.4Event APEX 105.44Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6088Stephenson Eagles

Season APEX 81.2Event APEX 41Rank 39Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10666Green MachineZ

Season APEX 106Event APEX 46.51Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 654.6 ±9.3

4680AzTech Eagles

Season APEX 80.5Event APEX 11.95Rank 40Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5907CC Shambots

A+

Season APEX 326.9Event APEX 219.82Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7160Ludington O-Bots

Season APEX 247.2Event APEX 86.37Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2075, 6088, 10666

/ 100 compat

Projected

193 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2075, 6088, 10666

Auto

67.9 35%

Teleop

100.0 52%

Endgame

23.8 12%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4680, 5907, 7160

/ 100 compat

Projected

318.1 pts

~2.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4680, 5907, 7160

Auto

79.3 25%

Teleop

186.1 58%

Endgame

55.4 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.17 · Blue 2.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score193pts

Blue projected score318.1pts

Red win probability17%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 26%, blue 40%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -125.2
Score range: 131–380
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 547 vs event baseline 342.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

421.6Season APEX654.6

67.9Auto79.3

100Teleop186.1

23.8Endgame55.4

154Consistency74

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	59
teleop	79	203
endgame	28	140
foul	15	5
total	140	407

Result

Final score

140 – 407

Prediction correct · off by 70.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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