FIRST in Michigan State Championship - DTE Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 55

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

339.49 – 327.94

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

360 – 291

Prediction correct · off by 28.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 588.4 ±8.7

2054Tech Vikes

Season APEX 244.3Event APEX 155.32Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10633BeeBotics

Season APEX 197.3Event APEX 110.3Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9771FPRO

Season APEX 146.8Event APEX 73.87Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 446.1 ±9.8

85B.O.B. (Built on Brains)

Season APEX 125.4Event APEX 129.16Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10978Complete Robotics

Season APEX 83.3Event APEX 47.93Rank 36Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4362Gems

Season APEX 237.4Event APEX 150.85Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2054, 10633, 9771

/ 100 compat

Projected

339.5 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2054, 10633, 9771

Auto

77.5 23%

Teleop

196.0 57%

Endgame

67.9 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 34%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 85, 10978, 4362

/ 100 compat

Projected

327.9 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 85, 10978, 4362

Auto

48.7 15%

Teleop

192.4 59%

Endgame

86.6 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 34%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.95 · Blue 1.78

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score339.5pts

Blue projected score327.9pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 34%, blue 23%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 11.6
Score range: 266–401
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 651 vs event baseline 342.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

588.4Season APEX446.1

77.5Auto48.7

196Teleop192.4

67.9Endgame86.6

58Consistency129

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	87	75
teleop	204	154
endgame	69	62
foul	0	0
total	360	291

Result

Final score

360 – 291

Prediction correct · off by 28.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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