FIRST in Michigan State Championship - DTE Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 53

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

166.27 – 508.42

2%98%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

200 – 729

Prediction correct · off by 127.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 361.5 ±10.4

4381Twisted Devils

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 7.61Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3875Red Storm Robotics

Season APEX 155.8Event APEX 121.62Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8352CODE Gold

Season APEX 105.2Event APEX 37.04Rank 26Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 876.8 ±8.8

7220Steel Falcons

Season APEX 253.6Event APEX 101.1Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

27Team RUSH

Season APEX 396.1Event APEX 369.1Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11493Pixel Knights

Season APEX 227.1Event APEX 38.22Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4381, 3875, 8352

/ 100 compat

Projected

166.3 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4381, 3875, 8352

Auto

41.0 26%

Teleop

75.6 49%

Endgame

38.7 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 40%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7220, 27, 11493

/ 100 compat

Projected

508.4 pts

~3.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7220, 27, 11493

Auto

131.0 26%

Teleop

278.4 55%

Endgame

93.7 19%

Strengths

· 27 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 40%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.06 · Blue 3.03

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score166.3pts

Blue projected score508.4pts

Red win probability2%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 40%, blue 41%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -342.1
Score range: 105–569
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 929 vs event baseline 339.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

361.5Season APEX876.8

41Auto131

75.6Teleop278.4

38.7Endgame93.7

77Consistency136

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	132
teleop	104	451
endgame	64	146
foul	5	0
total	200	729

Result

Final score

200 – 729

Prediction correct · off by 127.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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