FIRST in Michigan State Championship - DTE Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 52

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

301.38 – 198.19

78%22%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

366 – 205

Prediction correct · off by 35.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 586.6 ±9.3

245Adambots

Season APEX 181.6Event APEX 74.09Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8517Bounty Hunters

Season APEX 170.6Event APEX 121.34Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2075Enigma Robotics

Season APEX 234.4Event APEX 105.95Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 445.3 ±9.8

1189Gearheads

Season APEX 254.1Event APEX 134.76Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4680AzTech Eagles

Season APEX 80.5Event APEX 19.04Rank 40Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3357COMETS

Season APEX 110.7Event APEX 44.39Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 245, 8517, 2075

/ 100 compat

Projected

301.4 pts

~2.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 245, 8517, 2075

Auto

54.6 18%

Teleop

166.7 54%

Endgame

87.2 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 41%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1189, 4680, 3357

/ 100 compat

Projected

198.2 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1189, 4680, 3357

Auto

61.6 31%

Teleop

96.8 49%

Endgame

38.2 19%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 41%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.63 · Blue 1.36

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score301.4pts

Blue projected score198.2pts

Red win probability78%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 41%, blue 35%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 103.2
Score range: 137–362
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 571 vs event baseline 341.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

586.6Season APEX445.3

54.6Auto61.6

166.7Teleop96.8

87.2Endgame38.2

154Consistency100

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	55	50
teleop	247	106
endgame	64	49
foul	0	0
total	366	205

Result

Final score

366 – 205

Prediction correct · off by 35.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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