FIRST in Michigan State Championship - DTE Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 51

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

419.94 – 376.51

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

641 – 210

Prediction correct · off by 193.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 774.2 ±9.3

2054Tech Vikes

Season APEX 244.3Event APEX 132.6Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3668TroBots

Season APEX 144.5Event APEX 17.12Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7769The CREW

Season APEX 385.4Event APEX 270.22Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 572.8 ±9.3

5505V2 - Volts Squared

Season APEX 128.3Event APEX 131.23Rank 38Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7160Ludington O-Bots

Season APEX 247.2Event APEX 112.66Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10633BeeBotics

Season APEX 197.3Event APEX 132.62Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2054, 3668, 7769

/ 100 compat

Projected

419.9 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2054, 3668, 7769

Auto

69.4 17%

Teleop

252.9 61%

Endgame

92.8 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 44%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5505, 7160, 10633

/ 100 compat

Projected

376.5 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5505, 7160, 10633

Auto

46.3 12%

Teleop

232.7 62%

Endgame

98.6 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 44%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.35 · Blue 1.74

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score419.9pts

Blue projected score376.5pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 44%, blue 35%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 43.4
Score range: 316–481
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 851 vs event baseline 339.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

774.2Season APEX572.8

69.4Auto46.3

252.9Teleop232.7

92.8Endgame98.6

37Consistency85

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	50
teleop	401	89
endgame	207	61
foul	0	10
total	641	210

Result

Final score

641 – 210

Prediction correct · off by 193.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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